25 Jun 2026 Mid-Year CIO Market & Economic Perspectives
Mid-Year Market Perspectives and a Look Ahead
As we reach the midpoint of the year, investors are weighing a first half defined by resilience, real volatility, and a widening debate about what comes next. Our newly released Mid-Year CIO Market and Economic Perspectives is designed to cut through the noise and provide thoughtful context for what has mattered most and what may lie ahead.
This year’s letter focuses less on short-term predictions and more on helping investors understand the forces shaping markets over time. It reinforces why disciplined preparation remains far more powerful than reacting to headlines.
Below are several key highlights from this edition.
Key Insights from the 2026 Mid-Year Perspectives
- The economy proved resilient through the first half despite the war in Iran, higher oil prices, sticky inflation, and elevated interest rates
- Artificial intelligence remained a dominant force, driving a powerful capital investment cycle while also raising questions about valuations, capital intensity, and concentration
- Equity markets delivered strong gains, but the path included a meaningful drawdown followed by one of the strongest two-month rallies in decades, with non-US markets outperforming
- High-quality bonds posted modestly positive returns, though the stock-bond relationship is dynamic and depends heavily on the level and volatility of inflation
- The “rearview mirror” problem is a central risk, as portfolios concentrated in the last cycle’s winners may be more fragile than they appear
- The conditions that supported the prior regime, low inflation, low rates, easy capital, and globalization, may be less reliable in the decade ahead
- Successful investing is about building resilient, globally diversified portfolios aligned with long-term goals, not predicting the next market move
We invite you to read the full Mid-Year CIO Market and Economic Perspectives to explore these themes in greater depth. As always, we welcome thoughtful conversations about how these insights apply to your individual situation and long-term objectives.
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